The 5/16ths course at Dairyland in Wisconsin has a strong post bias, with the #1 box usually dominant, but with a strong #8 post in many grades. This is a track where you really need to download a copy of the Stat Force to check out the details of the post bias for each race.
Let's look at some of the most interesting races on the Thursday night card at Dairyland Greyhound Park...
In tonight's 1st race, I'm going to take a leap with a longshot, the #1, Alkay Dragonfire. This greyhound is in a good post position, but the advantage is mechanical here. The #2 runner is a break-and-fade greyhound, so I expect that runner will be out of the way. And the #3 tends to run midtrack or wide. That should leave my #1 runner open on the rail. Alkay Dragonfire is a late-speed greyhound, so I'm hoping for clear sailing early, and a nice run-down on the stretch. All, of course, at decent odds!
The 5th race is a Maiden event. The best I can see here is the #8, Kayla O. This is a strong post position, and Kayla O has the best average time on the Stat Attack. This runner also shows the best late speed in the field.
Thursday night's 8th race has a strong favorite, the #2 runner, Amf Setting Sun. The crowd will see those recent wins on the program, and push down the odds on this runner. I would rather look for a longshot here, and hope for the best. My best key here seems to be the #4, Chase Matilda. I'm hoping that the #1, #2 and #3 do a little bumping on the inside. My #4 has the best break in the field, and may get out ahead of trouble. Chase Matilda has good times, and if you'll check in the lines, this runner has a grade A win from this same #4 box in the recent past. At least I'll get some odds on this one, but we're looking at a 5-1 shot this way, and not a high-probability play.
You'll find an interesting grade B contest in the 10th race. My key will be the #1, Yo My Emerald. This greyhound has a good post record, going 8/3-2-1-2 from the 1/2 area. Yo My Emerald has the second-best adjusted time average, and the best grade average. I'm hoping the crowd gives me some odds on this one, since Yo My Emerald hasn't had much racing luck lately, and the lines offer a confusing mix of distance races and Stake contests.
My final play will come in the 11th race. The crowd is likely to make the #4 dog, Cals Frisk Me, a strong favorite. This dog has three wins in a row, and that should be enough to claim favorite status. I'll have to find a runner to try to beat that #4. My choice would be the #8, Charming Hannah. This runner has a good starting box. She has a break advantage over the #7 runner, and a good post record, scoring 33% wins from the outside. With the favorite breaking a little slowly from a tough midtrack box, this might be a good time to score an upset. In any case, I'll be using Charming Hannah in all slots in the exotics.
Those are my picks for the Thursday night races at Dairyland. If you are a Premium Member, I would like to invite you to click on your free Stat Attack and Stat Force sheets for this card and enjoy these races via simulcast, or on the Internet. Enjoy your time at the races!
Gordon Waite
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Handicapping Results from Dairyland
The first race on Thursday night saw my key, Alkay Dragonfire, go to post as the crowd's 2-1 favorite. This greyhound broke in 2nd place, but then started a slow fade. Alkay Dragonfire was 3rd at the 1/8th call and 4th at the stretch call. Alkay Dragonfire fell back more on the stretch, ending up in 6th place by nine lengths.
Kayla O did a little better in the 5th race, finishing in 4th place, 2.5 lengths back. This greyhound was the crowd favorite at 1.6-1 odds.
In the 8th race, Chase Matilda had a little better odds, 7.4-1. This runner broke 4th but had trouble at the turn. She dropped to 7th there, but clawed back a bit to finish in 6th, 11.5 lengths off the leader.
In finally got things turned around in the 10th race! My key, Yo My Emerald, went to post at 4.4-1 odds, breaking 7th from the #1 box. This greyhound accelerated well, moving into 4th place at the 1/8th call. Moving up steadily, Yo My Emerald was in 2nd place at the stretch call. Then this runner kicked it in, passing the leader and moving into 1st place on the stretch. In the end, Yo My Emerald was 1.5 lengths ahead at the wire. The 4.4-1 odds created a win paoff of $10.80. The Quiniela was a nice $41 payday, and the Trifecta came in at $243.
My key in the 11th race was Charming Hannah. This greyhound ended up as the crowd's weak favorite at 3-1 odds. She broke 4th from the #8 box, then took a little bumping, ending up in 6th place, 12 lengths off the leader.
So on Thursday night it was 1 winner in 5 races, with a win payoff of $10.80. That's a break-even night, and that's enough to keep a guy coming back for more. See you next time at the races!
Gordon