Gulf Greyhound Park in Texas has a very interesting post position bias. It varies tremendously from grade to grade. For example, on today's Stat Force, you'll see that in Maiden races the #1 dogs wins a big 18.27% of the time. But just one grade up, in grade J, the #1 box is winning only 13.28% of races. That's a huge difference. The Maiden rail dog wins 37.5% more races than the grade J rail dog! Then in grade A, that #1 dog goes on to win 22.15% of races! And pity the dog stuck in the #6 box in grade A. That runner can only muster 8.84% wins. Nearly one third the number from the inside box. Keep these things in mind when you're playing those Texas runners!
Let's take a squint at the Friday evening card at Gulf Greyhound Park...
My campaign for today starts in the 3rd race, a grade C contest on the 5/16ths course. I'm going after a longshot here, supporting #2, Eye Catcher. This greyhound isn't the fastest, nor the highest grade. But the #2 box has the highest winning percentage in grade C, sending 18.68% into the winner's circle. Eye Catcher has good times and a good grade average, and should be a good play in all slots in the exotics.
I'm not likely to get good odds in the 4th race on #1, Tied With A Bow. But I'll play this dog anyway. Tied With A Bow has the best adjusted time average by far. Couple with the strong box and a good post record, Tied With A Bow should be the dog to beat in this race.
A good opportunity arises in the 6th race tonight, a grade A on the 5/16ths course. The crowd is likely to bet too heavily on the #5 dog, Gable Minnehaha. This dog has four wins in a row recently, and I expect this runner will get strong support again tonight. But the #5 box is a tough place to start, and I'm looking for a spoiler here. I should be able to get some odds on the #6, Nina’s Wagster. This greyhound has the second-best times and a huge post record. Nina’s Wagster has run 8 times from the 5/6/7 area, and scored 5 wins! It helps here when #7 and #8 both run wide.
The 7th race is a grade C on the 3/8ths course. I'm going with the best grade average here, #1, Flaming Kiss. In addition to the class factor, Flaming Kiss is in the hot box, and her times are just a little off the fastest. Flaming Kiss benefits on the rail when the #2 and #3 both run wide. And with a post record of 11/3-2-2-1, I'll be using this runner in all slots in the exotics.
You'll find an interesting handicap in the 8th race. I expect the crowd will bet too much money on the #1 dog, Cry Tony. This greyhound has a nice past performance line on the most recent race, and the crowd tends to overplay something like that. So once again I'm looking for a spoiler, as that #1 dog has only won 1 time in 11 inside starts! I only have to go next door to find a good alternative to the #1. Consider #2, Hey Hotshot. This runner has 5 wins in 22 inside starts, more than twice the percentage of the #1. With a good grade average, this greyhound is a better value than the #1 runner. I'll be using Hey Hotshot in all slots for my exotic wagers in this race.
The 10th race is on the longer 660 course. I think a lot of handicappers will play the #2 runner, who is moving from 5/16ths to 3/8ths and shows big late speed at 5/16ths. I shy away from unproven runners, and the #2 is definitely unproven. And I especially go to some other dog when the odds on #2 will be low. I'll go with the obvious play on #1, J’s Aiyssa. The #1 box is stronger than the #2, and J’s Aiyssa has good break skills, good times and a good grade average. I hope I get longer odds on #1 than #2!
In tonight's final race, the 13th, I expect the crowd to make the #2 dog the favorite. This runner has three wins in a row, and that has strong appeal to most handicappers. But that means there will be very low odds on that dog. I want value, so I'm looking elsewhere. The best I can see is the #7, Miss Katara. This runner has the best adjusted time average on the Stat Attack, as well as the best break average. And how about that post record? Miss Katara has run 5 times from the 6/7/8, scoring 2 wins, 2 seconds and a third. That's fine for me, and I'll play Miss Katara in all slots in the exotics.
It looks like we'll have some fun at Gulf on Friday night. I'm looking at a bunch of races where I'm trying to beat the favorite, and that always means some excitement! If you are a Premium Subscriber here, please download your free Stat Attack, Stat Force, and Tip Sheet for Gulf for Friday night and enjoy yourself at the races!
Gordon Waite
![[]](/sites/all/modules/ubercart/uc_cart/images/bullet-arrow-up.gif "Expand cart block."){kind=icon}
4 Winners in 7 tries At Gulf on Friday Night!
My first play of the night came in the 3rd race on the #2 runner, Eye Catcher. This greyhound went to post at excellent 5.7-1 odds, and broke 2nd. Eye Catcher made a good rush and had the lead by the 1/8th call. Then it was a matter of stretching it out, as Eye Catcher lead by four lengths at the stretch call, and ended up winning by an impressive six lengths! Those 5.7-1 odds created a nice $13.40 win payoff, with an $11.40 Quiniela and and Exacta that paid $67.20. The $2 Tri paid $274.60 and the ten-cent Superfecta was a handsome $175.20. A nice way to start the night!
In the 4th, I got neither good odds, nor a win. Tied With A Bow came into the #1 box as the 1.8-1 crowd favorite. My runner broke dead last, but improved to 4th at the turn, and moved up a bit to finish 3rd by 3.5 lengths. Good late speed, but too little and too late.
WeeeeOooooo! In the 6th race I hit a good one. In my Blog I picked the #6 runner, Nina’s Wagster, to be my key. Boy did this dog come through! Nina’s Wagster went to post at 8.4-1 odds. Breaking 7th at the start, Nina’s Wagster moved up to 2nd at the 1/8th call, then took the lead on the stretch and ended up winning by a lengths. Those 8.4-1 odds resulted in an excellent $18.80 win payoff, a Quiniela worth $36.80, and a spectacular Exacta payoff of $267.30! This race was a Twin Tri and that paid $171.50. The ten-cent Superfecta was a incredible $500.01! Sorry, but WEEEEEOOOOOOO!!!
What a night! I made it three out of four in the 7th when my key, Flaming Kiss, was a winner from the #1 box. Going to post at 2-1 odds, Flaming Kiss broke 3rd, but moved right into the lead before the 1/8th call. Then my key stretched it out a bit, winning by three lengths. The Win payout was $6.00, and Flaming Kiss topped a Q worth $7.20, and an Exacta that was a little better at $40.80. The Tri came in at $93.20, and the ten-cent Superfecta paid $22.10.
The best my runner could manage in the 8th race was another in-the-money finish. Hey Hotshot went to post at 5.2-1 odds, broke 6th, and moved up to 2nd at the 1/8th call. This key runner couldn't hold, though, and finished in 3rd place, four lengths back. As I mentioned in the Blog, I mentioned using this dog in all slots in the exotics, and that was a good call. The Trifecta paid $238 and the ten-cent Super was $102.94.
My fourth win of the night came in the 10th race. My key, #1, J’s Aiyssa, was also the crowd's favorite, going into the box at 0.9-1 odds. J’s Aiyssa broke 5th, moved up to 4th at the 1/8th call, then just managed a late kick to win this race by a nose. J’s Aiyssa paid $3.80 for the victory, with a Quiniela at $16.60, and an Exacta that paid a choice $92.10. The $2 Trifecta was a smooth $420.60, and the ten-cent Superfecta was a smiler, at $831.60! That's about as good as you can get with the crowd favorite on top!
My final play came in the 13th race when #7, Miss Katara, went off as the crowd favorite. That's not want I wanted, but it didn't matter, as Miss Katara finished in 5th, nine lengths back. Starting at 2.5-1 odds, Miss Katara ran into a touch of trouble and was 5th at the corner, and never recovered.
So tonight I scored four nice wins in seven tries, a good 57% winning average. And the odds were great on a couple of these, with Win payoffs of $13.40, $18.80, $6.00 and $3.80. That's $42 in win payoffs in 7 races, for an outstanding 200% ROI. I'm happy with that any time! Good luck tomorrow at the races!
Gordon