Derby Lane in St. Peteresburg, Florida, is a track where speed is important. The trick is to know what kind of speed is important in each race. That's were the
Stat Attack and the
Stat Force come in. The
Stat Attack offers each greyhound's raw time average, and their overall variant-adjusted time average. The
Stat Force gives you more specific information, like each dog's in-grade time average and their in-post time average. In addition you can get a clean-only time average and a recency-based time average if you are a form handicapper. So whatever your needs, our sheets have you covered. Now let's apply some of this information to handicap a few of the Derby Lane races on Saturday night...
In tonight's 1st race, you'll find a runner, #7, J’s B Golden, with a big mechanical advantage. J’s B Golden is a midtrack runner with a big break advantage over both the #6 and #8 runners. In addition to that advantage, J’s B Golden benefits as a midtrack runner when #2, #3, #4, #5 and #6 all run strongly to the rail, while the #8 dog runs wide. J’s B Golden has a slight fade late, so I'll be using this greyhound in all slots in the exotics on Saturday night.
Take a look at #2, Starz Accord, in the 4th race. This greyhound has a good grade average and the best adjusted time average. The in-post adjusted time also leads the field, as backup up by Starz Accord's post record. This greyhound has won 36% from the 1/2/3 area. Watch for late speed from this runner.
There is a fair amount on competition in the 6th race tonight. I expect the favorite will be #6, Tk Rapala. This greyhound sweeps all of the time averages, and does it by quite a good amount. Tk Rapala has a great post record: 34/13-4-6-3. In addition, Tk Rapala has a break advantage over the #5 runner, and benefits when both #4 and #5 go strongly to the rail.
The 8th race here is probably the most interesting handicap on this card. I expect that the crowd will make the #1 runner, Kiowa Chilton, their weak favorite. This greyhound has the best adjusted time average, and the #1 box that everybody likes. But if you check on the Stat Attack you'll find that this greyhound doesn't like this post position at all! Overall, the #1 box is winning one out of six races. But when Kiowa Chilton has the #1 box, she only wins one out of six races. That's not good at all. So I'm looking for another greyhound to beat this #1 dog. I'll turn to #5, Bills Are Due. This greyhound has the best grade average in the field, and her overall adjusted time average is only a tenth of a second off the best in the field. Bills Are Due has a big break advantage over the #6, and may be able to outbreak the #4 dog as well, give their class difference. In any case, Bills Are Due should offer the best value play in this race, and I'll be using this runner in all slots in the exotic plays.
You'll find an easy favorite in the 10th race, a grade A contest. #5, Tmc’s Trail Boss, has all of the time averages in his favor, and by a big margin. This runner's adjusted time is .19 seconds better than the next best, and that's nearly three lengths! Tmc’s Trail Boss also has an excellent post record, 41/14-9-10, and looks like a good play in all slots in the trifecta and superfecta.
Those are some of the interesting handicaps on this Saturday night card at Derby Lane. Premium Members are invited to download their free sheets for this card and enjoy a night at the races!
Gordon Waite
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Saturday Night Results
In tonight's 1st race, J’s B Golden couldn't win, but as I mentioned in the Blog, this greyhound was a good play in all slots in the exotics. J’s B Golden went to post at 6-1 odds, broke into the lead, and held it all the way to the stretch. But there this runner weakened, finishing 3rd by only one length. The exotics were worthwhile, though, with a Trifecta that paid $389 and a Superfecta worth $1,518.60.
In the 4th race, Starz Accord came close but couldn't seal the deal. Going off at 3.5-1 odds, Starz Accord broke 6th and accelerated nicely, moving into 2nd at the 1/8th call. That's the best this greyhound could do, finishing two lengths out of the lead.
In the 6th race, I got an in-the-money finish from Tk Rapala. This greyhound went off as the crowd's 1-1 favorite, broke 3rd and never budged from that spot! Tk Rapala was only 1.5 lengths behind at the wire, but that's not a win!
Apparently the 8th race didn't work out well for too many people! The crowd didn't pick the greyhound I predicted, and that dog ran 5th. The dog they DID pick as their favorite ran 6th. The dog that I picked as MY favorite ran third. I guess in a way, I got the best of all that, because I did point out that I would be using this greyhound in all slots in the exotics. And with my key going off at 9.1-1 odds, having all those other dogs finish behind me made those exotics a little nicer! The Trifecta came in at $435 and the Superfecta paid a staggering $4,568. Those kind of numbers take the sting out of not finishing in 1st, don't you agree?
I did manage to have a key score a win on top in the 10th race. Tmc’s Trail Boss went off as the crowd's 1.7-1 favorite and went box to wire for me, finishing a length ahead of the second greyhound. The win paid $5.40, with a Q at $11.60 and a Perfecta paying $17. The Trifecta was an anemic $57.20 and the Superfecta paid $322.40. Still, a win is a win!
That's how they ran at Derby Lane tonight, one winner on top in five tries. Sometimes you can make a good night out of it, though, even when your keys don't make it all the way to the front of the pack! See you tomorrow at Palm Beach!
Gordon