Happy Birthday America!!!
I've been blogging regularly about handicapping the Featured Tracks that we highlight each day at the top right side of our page. But there are plenty of other tracks with dozens of races available to simulcast players, or folks with Internet accounts. So I thought I would start handicapping a few of the premier races each day at various other tracks. While we're not giving away free Stat Attack, Stat Force, or Tip Sheets for these cards, I figure you might still be interested in some handicapping comments.
And I'll post a link at the end of each Blog entry so you can download the matching sheets if you have a Pay Per View (PPV) account set up with us. As always, those sheets would be $2 each.
So let's start out with a few handicaps on the Orange Park card on Saturday night in Jacksonville, Florida. There are two nice Stake races on this card, the semi-final round of the James J. Patton Marathon Stake. So it should be a great night at Orange Park!
You'll find a good key play in the 2nd race tonight, a grade C contest on the 5/16ths course. On the outside, consider #8, Ethereal Wealth. This greyhound has the best adjusted times on the Stat Attack, and a good grade average. But the secret here is post bias. This #8 box has been winning an incredible 20.13% of the time in grade C! So having the fastest dog in a 20% box looks like a great high-probability play here!
In tonight's 7th race, I'm looking for longer odds on my key, #7, Hot Hot Dog. This greyhound has the best adjusted time on the Stat Attack, as well as the best in-box and in-grade adjusted times on the Stat Force sheets. In addition, take a look at his post record: 23/8-2-2-6. That's almost 35% wins from the 6/7/8 area, and it shows that Hot Hot Dog will be a good play in all slots in the trifecta and superfecta.
The first Stake race of the evening comes in the 11th. This is a Marathon race, 7/16ths of a mile long. These marathon races give speed a chance to work. I'm looking at my Stat Attack, and that points to #5, Eds Go For It. This runner has the best adjusted time average, and according to the Stat Force, this is a hot box at this distance. Watch for good late speed from Eds Go For It.
The final Stake race comes in the 15th. There is a very obvious favorite here, the #6, Penny Candy. Unfortunately, this dog is so good that everybody and their uncle will be betting on her! That means the odds are going to be so low that it would be hard to make much profit on this greyhound. So I'm going contrarian here, looking for a spoiler to beat Penny Candy. The best alternate I can find is on the rail. #1, Glo’s Legend, has a good time average on the Stat Attack and a good post record, winning 5 times in 14 starts from the inside boxes. But Glo’s Legend has another benefit. Check out the Break Chart and Running Style box on the Stat Attack and you'll see that Glo’s Legend stays on the rail and benefits when #2 and #3 run midtrack, and #4 and #5 both run wide! That should leave Glo’s Legend clear and alone on the rail. Just remember, this is a longshot play against a very strong favorite. You should get good odds, but this is a low-probability play. I will be using Glo’s Legend in all slots in the trifecta and the superfecta.
That's a quick look at a few of the races on Saturday night at Orange Park. If you would like to download copies of our sheets for this card, here are the links: Orange Park Saturday Stat Attack and the Stat Force and the Tip Sheet. You'll need to have a Pay Per View (PPV) account set up with us, and the charge is $2 per sheet, as always. And if you need to set up a Pay Per View account, here's how!
Thanks, and I hope you have some good luck Saturday night at Orange Park!
Gordon Waite
![[]](/sites/all/modules/ubercart/uc_cart/images/bullet-arrow-up.gif "Expand cart block."){kind=icon}
Stake Results from Orange Park
In tonight's 2nd race, my key, Ethereal Wealth, drew better odds than I expected, going to post at 3.4-1. This greyhound broke a poor 7th, but accelerated into 4th at the 1/8th call. Ethereal Wealth improved to 3rd at the wire, only 2.5 lengths behind the winner. If this greyhound had kept it a little more toward the rail, things might have been different, as Ethereal Wealth showed very good late speed.
In the 7th race, Hot Hot Dog showed a big effort early, moving from dead last at the break up to 3rd at the 1/8th call. But this 5.2-1 play had used it all up, dropped back to 4th and finished 5.5 lengths out of the lead. As with my last play, this greyhound needed to stick closer to the rail to succeed.
In the first Stake race of the evening, my pick, Eds Go For It, went off at nice 7-1 odds, but that didn't do me much good. The greyhound broke 5th and never budged from that spot, finishing 8.5 lengths back. This was a case, though, with a strong favorite winning at 0.5-1 odds. So I don't feel too bad about missing a $3 win payoff, nor the $44.80 Trifecta. Racheal Lee ran a great race, though, winning by an impressive five-length margin!
The second Stake race of the night went about as I thought it might. The crowd made the #6 dog, Penny Candy, their strong favorite as predicted. That runner got the job done, winning by 6.5 lengths at 0.7-1 odds. In my Blog I mentioned that Penny Candy wouldn't make for a big win payoff, and I was going to use my key, Glo’s Legend, in all slots in the exotics. Given that my key finished third at incredible 25.9-1 odds, and with the 2nd-place greyhound sporting 31.3-1 odds, my decision turned out to be golden! Even with that strong favorite on top, the Trifecta came in at $1,101.40, and the Superfecta paid $1,081! This race points out that sometimes you do far better trying to get a longshot in the money, rather than worrying about a favorite coming in on top!
I hope you all had some fun at the races tonight! And I hope you can join me in playing some of the races at Palm Beach on the matinee, or at Phoenix for their later card. In any case, have a great day at the track!
Gordon